Thursday, February 7th, 2013 and is filed under Blog, Immigration
Over the years, polling in elections has become more accurate. Much to our chagrin, the majority of election polls last year predicted an Obama win in most of the swing states. Issue polling, on the other hand is quite a different story. It all depends upon how you ask the questions, what choices are provided, and the background for the questions. Hence, they are garbage in; garbage out.
Recently, we have seen a torrent of polls showing that everyone is clamoring for amnesty. In fact, the latest poll showed 72% supporting citizenship for illegals. Now, even if you are a supporter of amnesty, ask yourself for a moment, are a majority of Americans on the ground really clamoring for amnesty? Ask any congressman for a district other than the inner city, and they will tell you their constituents want them to enforce the laws.
The Center for Immigration Studies decided to conduct their own poll of 1,000 likely voters in an attempt to phrase the questions in a way that is more attuned to reality. Here are some key results:
- Of likely voters, 52 percent responded that they preferred to see illegal immigrants in the United States go back to their home countries, compared to just 33 percent who would like them to be given legal status.
- There is an enormous gap in intensity between the two views on immigration. Of those who want illegal immigrants to head home, 73 percent indicated that they felt “very strongly” about that view, while just 35 percent of those who want illegal immigrants to get legal status said they felt very strongly about this view.
- One reason the public may prefer that illegals head home is a strong belief that efforts to enforce immigration laws have been inadequate — 64 percent said that enforcement of immigration laws has been “too little”, while just 10 percent said that it had been too much, and 15 percent said it was “just right”.
- When asked why there is a large illegal population in the country, voters overwhelming (71 percent) thought it was because we had not made a real effort to enforce our immigration laws. Only 18 percent said it was because we were not letting in enough immigrants legally.
- Another reason for skepticism about legalization is that most voters (69 percent) agreed with the statement that “giving legal status to illegal immigrants does not solve the problem because rewarding law breaking will only encourage more illegal immigration.” Just 26 percent disagreed.
- When asked if they had confidence that immigration laws would be enforced in the event of a legalization, just 27 percent expressed confidence that there would be enforcement, while 70 percent indicated that they were not confident immigration law would be enforced.
- Enforcement remains politically very popular. Of likely voters, 53 percent indicated that they would be more likely to support a political party that supports enforcing immigration laws vs. only 32 percent who said they would be more likely to support a party that supports legalization.
You can read the wording of the questions here. This all goes to show that if the GOP would only go on offense and rap the Democrats for blowing up enforcement instead of talking about what sort of amnesty they would vote for, this would be a winning issue. As we have already noted, the Arizona election results show how this is a winning message when it is actually tried.
If Republicans plan to live and die by polls, they should make sure they are understanding the results properly.
Friday, January 18th, 2013 and is filed under Elections, Issues, News
The Republican consultants and politicians live and die by polls. They claim that every conservative issue is losing in the polls, and as such, we must modify our views. Well, you’ll seldom find a poll showing 75% of respondents agreeing to anything, but a new Gallup poll finds that 75% of adults support term limits for members of Congress. The results cut across all demographics and age groups. It’s time for the House to kick of the debate and try to pass a constitutional amendment to impose term limits. Let the public see which party is truly in town for power’s sake.
Wednesday, November 28th, 2012 and is filed under Blog, News, Obamacare
It is both wrongheaded and imprudent for the government to pursue any goal towards universal outcomes. Rather it’s the job of government to ensure universal opportunity. Nowhere is this more evident than with the healthcare system.
In the pursuit of universal health insurance coverage, the federal government has driven up the cost of healthcare with market distorting mandates, subsidies, and interventions. Fortunately, the public now understands that the government must focus on lowering costs for everyone, rather than universal coverage – an unattainable goal.
According to a new Gallup poll, a record 54% of respondents believe that universal health coverage is not the responsibility of the federal government. As you can see, that is a record high and a huge reversal from the past, in which most Americans bought into this notion that it’s possible to provide universal coverage without killing the healthcare system and raising costs.
Thursday, November 15th, 2012 and is filed under Blog, News
On thing is clear about issue-based polling: the results are a complete reflection of the way the question is posed to the respondents and the choices that are offered. If you ask voters whether illegal “workers” should be given a path to legalization or deported (very negative connotations), as was asked during the exit polls, you will get a more favorable result for the open borders crowd. But when you ask whether they should receive the laundry list of welfare benefits or whether we should grant amnesty before we have a system in place to completely end illegal immigration, you will find a more favorable result for our side.
Let’s take a look at today’s post-election issue polling from Gallup. When voters were asked an ambiguous question whether those “living” in the U.S illegally ( not as mellifluous sounding as “workers”) should be given a path to citizenship, only 37% answered in the affirmative. Many more gave an ambiguous answer because their views obviously depends upon the arrangement. If Americans would know that they would be entitled to trillions in welfare spending, that number would be a lot lower. Moreover, when asked whether we should stop illegal immigration, a strong majority of 62% answered in the affirmative.
Moving forward, we must be suspicious of push-polling conducted by the media in an attempt to promote amnesty.
Wednesday, October 31st, 2012 and is filed under Blog, Elections
We are seeing the same narrative play out in the world of polling on a daily basis. Polls continue to show Obama leading, not just in Ohio, but in states where most people believe to be in the bag for Romney, such as Florida and Virginia (and even some polls in NC). At the same time, the polls continue to show the partisan turnout to be more favorable to Obama than in 2008, even though he is losing the white vote by historic margins and failing to energize minorities and young voters to the same degree he did 4 years ago.
However, all polls consistently show Romney leading, often by double digits, among Independents. Remember that Bush actually lost Independents by one point nationally in 2004. In other words, these polls don’t compute.
Here are some new examples from today:
CBS/New York Times/Quinnipiac: They polled 3 battleground states and showed Obama leading 50-45 in Ohio, 48-47 in Florida, and 49-47 in Virginia. Even if you buy into the Obama Ohio juggernaut, does anyone really think he’s ahead in Florida?
Monday, October 29th, 2012 and is filed under Blog, Elections
As we noted last week, there is some confusion in the polling data that is creating a bimodal projection as to who will ultimately win the election. The national polls seem to show Romney with a steady lead, and with Obama failing to break 47% as an incumbent. On the other hand, a number of state polls show the race tied or Obama slightly ahead in the key battleground states.
However, when you examine the party breakdown of the polls, they are really reflecting the same reality. There is almost a linear correlation between the level of Obama’s support and the size of the Democrat advantage in the given sample (duh?). Most of the national polls show a reasonable D/R split (not overwhelmingly optimistic, but somewhere between 2004 and 2008 turnout), while most of the state polls that show Obama ahead have a sample that is more advantageous to Democrats than 2008! Does anyone really believe that the turnout will be worse for us than 2008 when the enthusiasm level is completely reversed from 4 years ago?
The one common theme from all the polls is that Romney is winning Independents and other key swing constituencies that are needed to win. Some polls have him winning them by historic margins. As such, the only way Obama can win is if the D/R split is more favorable for him than 2008. And that is exactly what PPP and others are predicting. However, if he performs only slightly worse than 2008 in terms of D vs. R turnout, there is no way he can win, given the strong support for Romney among Independents.
Take a look at this chart put together by Josh Jordan of National Review, and tell me how Obama can win. (note that some of this is a day or two outdated, but the overall picture remains the same):
Monday, October 22nd, 2012 and is filed under Blog, Elections
Two weeks before Election Day, all signs point to this being a very tight election. Romney clearly seized the momentum with his debate win two weeks ago – one which Obama failed to stop with his stronger performance last week. Most national polls show Romney with a 2-3 point lead; however, the state polls show an even tighter race.
One thing has not changed in terms of the Electoral College; the election will still boil down to Ohio, Ohio, Ohio. However, there is one major development over the past two weeks that has strengthened Romney’s hand in the Electoral College. The national surge in support for Romney has created such strong momentum in Florida, Virginia, and Colorado – both in the top line numbers and internal numbers – that it’s hard to see him losing any of those states.
So who cares? Well, once we allow for the assumption that Romney wins those three states, it is absolutely impossible – not just improbable – for Obama to win the election without Ohio. Even if he were to run the table in the rest of the battleground states (NH, IA, NV, and WI), he would still come up short. Take a look at how that would work.
Perforce, Obama cannot win without Ohio.
On the other hand, although it is still unlikely that Romney will win without Ohio, he is beginning to open up a legitimate alternative to 270. Many polls show Romney leading in New Hampshire, a reflection of his surge in support from white voters. Moreover, he has the momentum in Wisconsin and Iowa. Unfortunately, he appears to have stalled out in Nevada, polling about 2-3 points behind Obama. Any realistic alternative to 270 bypassing Ohio must include a victory in Wisconsin. Once he wins Wisconsin (from his base of 257), he has 267 votes, and needs to win either N.H.
Of course, this is predicated on the assumption that Obama keeps Nevada, which is a likely result in the event that he wins Wisconsin and Iowa.
Monday, October 15th, 2012 and is filed under Elections, News
With the economy enduring a record period of stagnation and with Obama’s approval rating underwater, his reelection bid was always an uphill climb. However, he had one factor working in his favor – one which was accentuated by Obama’s effective negative TV campaign barrage. He was much more likable as a person than Mitt Romney. Now, after Romney’s knockout punch at the debate, not only has he surged to a two-point lead in the latest poll of 10 battleground states, his likability numbers have gone up:
POLITICO considers the 10 competitive battlegrounds to be Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin.
Obama’s enduring personal popularity has been a key reason for his political resiliency. But Obama and Romney are now essentially tied on likability: 53 percent of those surveyed have a positive impression of Obama personally, and 45 percent do not. The same number view both Romney and Obama strongly favorably as view them strongly unfavorably.
The Obama campaign outspent Romney on TV through the summer in an effort to define the challenger as a heartless corporate raider. The president’s super PAC, Priorities USA Action, even tried to link a woman’s death to Romney’s tenure at Bain Capital in one memorable attack ad that Romney hotly disputed.
To make matters worse for Obama, the enthusiasm gap might lead to him underperforming his poll numbers:
Friday, October 12th, 2012 and is filed under News
Everyone is buzzing about the new Mason-Dixon poll which shows Romney leading Obama 51-44 in Florida. But here’s the real takeaway from the poll, which happened to have had a D+4 sample (more than 2008 turnout).
Whose plans are more likely to do more long-term harm to Medicare? Obama 54 percent, Romney 40 percent.
It seems that Obama’s decision to defend the death panel at last week’s debate was not a wise choice.
Thursday, September 27th, 2012 and is filed under Economy, News
A new poll from the National Association of Manufacturers confirms the damage from Obama’s regulatory albatross:
- Sixty-seven percent say there is too much uncertainty in the market today to expand, grow or hire new workers.
- Sixty-nine percent of small business owners and manufacturers say President Obama’s Executive Branch and regulatory policies have hurt American small businesses and manufacturers.
- Fifty-five percent say they would not start a business today given what they know now and in the current environment.
- Fifty-four percent say other countries like China and India are more supportive of their small businesses and manufacturers than the United States. Read More