Friday, June 20th, 2014 and is filed under Blog, Immigration
We already know that most GOP consultants have no core beliefs or desire to push conservative policies. But one would expect they would at least accurately analyze the polling data on the issues. After all, they live and die by polls.
For years, we have argued that Republicans should go on offense with the issue of immigration and run ads against Democrats for supporting his lawlessness and violation of our sovereignty. Yet, the GOP consultants have all drunk the kool-aid and are pushing amnesty. Now Gallup is out with a poll completely demolishing the electoral argument behind the open borders Republicans.
According to Gallup, Americans disapprove of Obama’s handling of immigration by 65% to 31%. Approval among independents has dropped to just 25%!
This tracks very closely to a recent CNN poll which showed that the public disapproves of the President’s handling of immigration by 61-35%. He is underwater with every demographic, including Independents (28-67%).
Imagine how the polls would look if we actually had an opposition party forcefully making the case for America-first policies that benefit American taxpayers and legal immigrants while preserving our sovereignty.
Tuesday, May 6th, 2014 and is filed under Blog, Elections
As the November midterms draw near, we are beginning to see a growing wave against Democrats, much like we witnessed at this time in 2010.
A new Pew poll gives Republicans a 4-point edge on the generic ballot test, which is significant given the fact that Democrats usually have a slight advantage even in a 50-50 year. They also found that Republicans have a crushing 16-point lead among Independents who are only down 4 among women. Furthermore, voters are still sour on Obamacare, Obama, and the economy.
This sounds like a recipe for disaster for Democrats, right?
But there is one other polling nugget that is worth noting. By a margin of 65%-30%, voters want the next president to pursue different policies than those of President Obama.
While it is quite arduous to sift through polling data or even real election returns in pursuit of a specific mandate from voters, it is quite clear what voters are NOT asking Republicans to do.
The reason they are abandoning Democrats and flocking to Republicans is not for the purpose of electing a Republican majority to pass amnesty and comprehensive open borders reform. In fact, given that amnesty is the biggest outstanding priority of Obama for the remainder of his presidency, the fact that voters overwhelmingly desire a new direction is a clear indication that pursuit amnesty would fly in the face of the prospective GOP governing mandate.
Much like this time four years ago, it would be amazing if we could all celebrate the impending victory. But we know that the biggest priority of a GOP majority would be to work with Obama to pass amnesty. That is why the Chamber of Commerce and their allies are spending millions lying to primary voters while obfuscating their real views from the voters.
Some of you might be excited by the latest polling data, but you will be made to care if we wind up electing Republicans who surrender on Obamacare and go full-throttle on amnesty. It’s better we be made to care while we still have a choice to elect Republicans who will pursue different policies than the current occupant of the Oval Office.
Cross-posted at RedState
Thursday, December 19th, 2013 and is filed under Blog, Elections, News, Uncategorized
It’s not even 2014 and Mississippi conservative Senate candidate, Chris McDaniel, is already tied with incumbent Senator Thad Cochran in the polls. According to a new Human Events/Gravis poll, Cochran and McDaniel are all tied up at 40% apiece. It is pretty unprecedented for a challenger to be polling this well against a 35-year incumbent so early in the race.
The poll also showed that only 39% of Republicans definitively approved of Cochran. This poll is in line with previous surveys that show Chris to be very competitive. This is why we were so proud to endorse him early on in this race. Chris is truly an impressive candidate, and with voters itching for a more effective conservative voice in the Senate, he has a solid chance to become a U.S. Senator next year.
Tuesday, December 17th, 2013 and is filed under Blog, Elections
The latest poll from Kentucky, conducted by Public Policy Polling, completely countermands the conventional wisdom that McConnell is a shoo-in to win the primary. In addition, the poll shows that McConnell is indeed the weaker candidate to go up against Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes in the general election. Here are some of the highlights:
- Senator McConnell is leading conservative Matt Bevin 53 to 26 percent in the primary. Previously, McConnell has led by 39 and 47 points; now he is only up 27 points. A strong majority, 61%, still have no opinion of Bevin. It is quite clear that as Bevin raises his name ID, he will make this race competitive.
- How unpopular is Mitch McConnell? Barack Obama lost the state by 23 points and 116 of 120 counties last year. Even 40% of Democrats voted against the President in the Democrats primary of 2012. Yet, Mitch McConnell sports an identical 31% approval rating statewide. Even among Republicans his approval has dropped to 47%. Clearly, primary voters are getting the message that McConnell is a finger lickin’ fraud.
- Matt Bevin is stronger against Grimes in the general election than Mitch McConnell. Bevin keeps Grimes down to 38% of the votes, while against McConnell she polls 42%. It is likely that once Bevin grows his name recognition, he will perform much better.
- Only 30% of voters really think that Rand Paul supports McConnell.
- Kentucky Republicans say they like Rand Paul better than Mitch McConnell by a 59/27 margin.
Sunday, September 22nd, 2013 and is filed under Issues
Most congressional leaders are ubiquitously unpopular with the public. However, the GOP Senate leader, Mitch McConnell, is unique. He is more unpopular with his own party than with Democrats!
According to a new Gallup poll, just 35% of adults polled approve of McConnell. While that is within the same range of approval as other leaders, what is striking about the poll is that 41% of Democrats approve of McConnell but only 33% of Republicans feel the same way.
Most Republicans have taken McConnell’s silence on important issues as a loud affirmation of his lack of conviction or willingness to fight on any issue. He evinces the image of a consummate political animal more than any other congressional leader. If there’s one thing Republicans dislike, it’s a finger lickin’ fraud.
We just witnessed the latest example of this fraudulent double speak from Mitch McConnell on the war on coal. He put out a slick ad showing how he fights against Obama’s war on coal and Kentucky jobs. The problems is that his fight has not moved beyond his ceremonial speeches and lying ads designed to ingratiate himself to primary voters.
Monday, June 24th, 2013 and is filed under Blog, Immigration, News
For quite some time, I’ve deemed the Senate a lost cause. In recent years, Democrats have shown a remarkable sense of discipline, getting every member – even those from red states – to vote for the most radical pieces of legislation. Moreover, roughly half the GOP conference is worthless and couldn’t care less about their constituents, and there is certainly no leadership from Mitch McConnell. The fix was in a long time ago on the bill. That’s why we must work on forming a backstop in the House.
In order to strengthen the resolve of conservatives in the House, we need to begin focusing on the source of this capricious pursuit of amnesty-first at all costs. These people don’t care about good policy, so all we can do is blow up the irrational political argument that is fueling this political suicide.
In addition to lacking any core principles, the GOP consultant class is completely tone deaf to the electoral tea leaves of their own politically-motivated positions. In their alternative universe, if the Senate passes an amnesty bill, Republicans in the House are in deep trouble with 8.5% of the electorate. In the real universe, it’s the Democrats who should be in trouble with 91.5% of the electorate – if Republicans would only take the initiative to campaign against them on this issue.
The grave error of the indolent consultant class is rooted in their misreading of the 2012 election. As Sean Trende noted last week, the real story of last November was the number of white voters, particularly working class, who failed to turn out and vote for Romney, even though they have been completely disenchanted with the Democrat Party. Although Romney offered some parsimonious tough talk on immigration when pressed about it during the primary debate season, he refused to campaign on the issue during the general election.
In fact, when Obama issued the illegal administrative amnesty in middle of the presidential race, Romney showed weakness by ostensibly agreeing to the premise of amnesty. Romney failed to run a single TV ad on this issue during the campaign. He should have been in Youngstown, Ohio inveighing against this out-of-touch end-run around Congress, while promising to stand with the American worker. But, alas, Romney said nothing about the issue, and in fact, evinced an image much closer to that of a Zuckerberg corporatist than a conservative populist.
Hence, in pursuit of voters who are largely out of reach, Republicans are leaving millions of white working class voters on the table – voters who are eminently within reach. Additionally, all the recent polling has shown that Blacks are against this amnesty bill. [Remember, a majority of Blacks voted for Prop 187 in California.] Were Republicans to go on offense and actually embrace a conversation on illegal immigration and enforcement-first during the 2014 midterms, they can drive a wedge between some black voters and the Dems, while crushing them with white working class voters. Poll after poll shows that Independent voters favor enforcement-first by a wide margin.
And what about the Hispanic vote? To the extent that there is a large portion of them who are within reach, it certainly won’t occur with the brand of stuffed-shirt Republicanism that is peddled by the consultant class, Mitch McConnell and John Boehner. It will be through Tea Party populism.
Arizona provides a great example of a favorable outcome for Republicans when they actually choose to engage on a wedge issue and return fire. In Arizona, there is no ambiguity about the Republican position on immigration. After all of the GOP-backed enforcement laws, every voter knows where they stand on the issue. Even John McCain and Jeff Flake are forced to lie to the voters during election years.
So what happened in 2012?
Despite the fact that Hispanics comprised 18% of the electorate (more than Florida and Colorado), Romney outperformed McCain’s 2008 showing in the state. He received 25% of the Hispanic vote, only slightly below his national average. Incidentally, Jan Brewer received 28% in 2010. But here’s the kicker: Romney blew out the white vote by a whopping 34 points! There wasn’t even much of a gender gap; he won the white women vote by 30. He won 12% of Democrats and 51% of Independents. Indys comprise a larger share of the electorate than either party in the state.
Wednesday, May 29th, 2013 and is filed under Blog, Immigration
There’s nothing more amusing in politics than watching Democrats feign concern for the political future of the Republican Party, as they attempt to cajole Republicans into self-immolation. The issue of amnesty is the latest and greatest example of this spectacle.
Behind all that bravado and push-polling perpetrated by liberal special interest groups, Democrats are apprehensive about their immigration deform/voter registration drive. They know that all the real polls show that the public wants enforcement first, and actually desires less overall immigration over more immigration. That is why it is so important for them to make Republicans own the amnesty bill, which is now over 1,000 pages long.
If you listen carefully to the chatter concerning the upcoming Senate vote, most of the focus is not centered on passing the bill, but passing it with bipartisan support. Chuck Schumer has said on several occasions that he is looking for upwards of 70 yes votes in the Senate. Now, why would someone who feels he is sitting on a popular bill, which can be used to bludgeon the other side, desire to share the electoral boon with the enemy? Why not pass it with most Republicans in the opposition, and hit them for it during the 2014 elections, when voters will undoubtedly punish the GOP for opposing something so popular as amnesty? After all, their silly little polls show this bill being more popular with the GOP base than with anyone else?
The answer to all conservatives who live outside of DC is obvious. In the real world, this bill is not only unpopular with the GOP base, it will sink Democrats with Independent voters and Reagan Democrats. That’s why Schumer wants the GOP to take the lead on the bill.
Moreover, the voter intensity gap on this issue is very similar to that of the gun issue – a dynamic that is quite ominous for Democrats. When most people were polled about expanded background checks in the abstract, they answered in the affirmative. Who wouldn’t support such a mellifluous-sounding idea? But how many of those people really supported the idea in reality – enough to act on that abstract expression of support? In fact, it was those who opposed the legislation who were more involved, more intense, and planned to vote based on that single issue.
The same thing applies to the immigration debate. Even in the polls that misrepresent the issue in order to net a positive result for pro-amnesty forces, there is no sense of how intense that support is for a mass amnesty. Obviously, if you ask people if they would support amnesty in the abstract if the illegals will jump through a millions hoops, assimilate, learn English, and pay trillions in taxes, they will answer in the affirmative. But how many of them – other than friends and relatives of the illegals themselves – are up in arms and out in the streets to support this bill? We all know that it is the people who are against amnesty that will be the most intense in their activism on this issue (aside for the special interests).
Wednesday, April 24th, 2013 and is filed under Blog, Immigration, Issues
If Republicans plan to dive head-first into massive amnesty and seismic expansions of legal immigration – all for political considerations – they should make sure they are reading the right polls. Issue polling (unlike election polling) is garbage in, garbage out. It’s all about how you ask the question and frame the issue. That is doubly true when it comes to immigration polling.
Here are some of the results from Fox News’s latest poll on immigration. As you can see, the questions were asked as innocuously as possible.
First, Obama’s approval/disapproval on immigration has slipped from 47-46 to 39-51. Among Independents, it’s 36-56. In my opinion, that is a direct result of the counter-offense against Obama’s position on this issue. The public is finally hearing another side to the argument.
With regards to legal immigration in general, 28% say we should increase the level of immigration; 55% say we should decrease immigration. Even a plurality of Democrats were for decreasing the overall numbers. Before Congress rushes to double or triple our already high level of immigration instead of implementing a targeted immigration system, we need to have a broader debate over the level of immigration we desire to have over the next 20 years.
Next, “Do you favor or oppose requiring completion of new border security measures first — before making other changes to immigration policies?” 68 percent are in favor; 22% are opposed. 66% of Democrats agree with enforcement first.
Thursday, April 4th, 2013 and is filed under Blog, Immigration
We are constantly entreated to a torrent of polling data showing that the entire country, including many Republicans, are clamoring for amnesty. However, as with most issue polling, the devil is in the details. It’s all about the phrasing of the question. In some sense, polling is a microcosm of politics in itself. It’s not so much about convincing people of the veracity of your views; it’s about getting people to use the language of your views.
Obviously, whenever you poll the public on immigration and offer the false choice of kicking in doors and rounding people up, you will not see a majority in support of such a position. But when you offer them a choice between enforcement first or amnesty now, you will find quite a different result.
In fact, the latest Rasmussen poll shows that you can even get a majority to support deportation when phrased in the right way. In a poll released last week, Rasmussen asked respondents “Millions of people entered the United States legally but stayed longer than their visas allowed. Should the federal government find these people and make them go home?”
Tuesday, February 12th, 2013 and is filed under Blog, News
We’ve noted many times that issue polling (unlike election polling) is worthless. It’s garbage in, garbage out. The poll is only a reflection of the way the question is asked, the choices that are offered, and the context or background that is provided. Depending on how you ask a question, you could probably get 75-80% support for almost any issue. Today’s Rasmussen poll on gun control is a perfect example.
When asked whether we “need stricter gun control laws,” a slim plurality (50-45) said yes. This sounds like a choice that supports more law and order. Yet, when asked whether stricter gun laws would reduce violence, only 32% answered in the affirmative. So what gives? Why do the other 18% believe in stricter gun laws if they admit those laws won’t fulfill their primary objective? There is no answer to this question. It all depends on how you present the issue.