Friday, March 21st, 2014 and is filed under Blog, Economy
Next week, Senate Democrats will restart their effort to create a de facto permanent unemployment entitlement for those out of work for up to 73 weeks. Unfortunately, instead of uprooting the entire premise of the Unemployment Insurance (UI) extension, many Senate Republicans are prepared to go along with this scheme as long as the 5 month cost is offset through some notional promises of more revenue in year 2024.
This represents a lost opportunity. The Democrat request for a UI extension in light of their Obamacare, Dodd-Frank, labor and environmental regulations on the economy is akin to someone injecting a painful disease into a patient while simultaneously demanding a constant flow of morphine. It’s time for Republicans to stand firm and pin the tail of long-term unemployment on the donkey. The message should be resoundingly clear: stop creating a permanent part-time economy with Obamacare and there won’t be a need to create dependency with fiscal morphine.
The Hill reports today on the findings of a Brookings Institute study detailing the state of the long-term unemployed:
A new study released Thursday finds that only about 11 percent of the long-term unemployed returned to full-time steady work a year later.
The study found that people out of work for at least six months are having an increasingly hard time reconnecting with the labor force.
It concludes that even if the unemployment rate returns to normal levels long-term unemployment will remain a problem in the economy and that “the long-term unemployed are an unlucky subset of the short-term unemployed.” […]
Between 2009 – 2013, the authors found that a sharp decline in job openings coupled with a decrease in labor force withdrawal rates accounts for the sharp rise in the number of long-term unemployed workers and the overall rise in the unemployment rate.
So what is the answer? What is the panacea? Do we subsidize even more individuals to stay unemployed or do we address the factors that have created the shortage of jobs?
That’s the choice Republicans need to communicate to the American people instead of getting mired in a dispute of which phony offsets to use in paying for the wrongheaded policy.
Republican leadership should block any UI bill unless Senator Harry Reid agrees to hold a debate on the real issues that cause unemployment. They should push full repeal of Obamacare, Dodd-Frank, and Obama’s new labor and environmental regulations. They should push Senator Ted Cruz’s new energy bill that will unshackle the private economy to create jobs. They should demand votes on lowering the corporate tax and repatriating foreign income – policies that Democrats claim to support.
Alternatively, they can agree to give amnesty to millions of illegal immigrants and double our record-high level of immigration and guest workers. After all, isn’t there a labor shortage in virtually every sector of the economy – both high-skilled and low-skilled?
Obamanomics provides Republicans with an opportunity to create a bold contrast. Will they actually bite?
Tuesday, May 14th, 2013 and is filed under Blog, Economy, Immigration, News
All conservatives and libertarians agree that government should not set wage requirements on private enterprise. That would violate the foundation of a free market economy. But should industries and special interest groups get to use the power of government to tilt our immigration system in a way that will actively depress wages? Is that free market doctrine?
I’ve been looking to find someone to come out to my house and do an assortment of outdoor work on gutters, downspouts, and siding. I can do most of the work myself, but some of the repairs need to be done in precarious positions that would require me to place a ladder on steep ground. The problem is that nobody will come out for a half days’ work for less than a few hundred dollars. In light of this “labor shortage” I plan to petition the government to flood the country with poor people from rough areas in the world. They will do any job for 10 bucks. Why shouldn’t we solve the “labor shortage” in this manner?
The free market is dictated by the ‘natural order of things.’ Obviously, the natural order of things as it relates to our immigration policy is not so easy to define. But it would be safe to say that for special interests to demand that we double our already record levels of immigration – to the detriment of the country at large and patriotic assimilation – is a manifestation of an anti-free market intervention into the natural order of things. No country will naturally implement an immigration system that makes assimilation impossible and burdens the broader tax base with too many low-wage earners in too short a period of time.
Undoubtedly, there might be a need for some guest workers in specific industries to replace, not augment, low-skilled immigration. But the assertion that there is a widespread labor shortage is greatly exaggerated by those who desire to use our immigration system to artificially depress wages. That is just as anti-free-market as using government to artificially inflate wages.
Case in point? San Joaquin Valley growers.
Fears of a potential farm labor shortage have caused San Joaquin Valley growers to boost wages to as much as $10 an hour this year to attract and keep workers for the harvest season.
With the farm-labor pool already tight and crops ready to be picked, growers are scrambling to secure their supply of workers.
“It is getting very competitive out there and employers are having to offer incentives to find the labor they need,” said Oscar Ramos, a grape farmer and Kingsburg-based farm-labor contractor. “And one of those incentives is higher wages.”
Farmers and agriculture industry leaders say wages have risen $1 to a $1.50 an hour this year compared to last year, or as much as 12%. Among Valley farmers, hourly wages are hovering between $9 and $10 an hour, which is higher than California’s minimum wage of $8.
Wages could go even higher. In September 2012, the average hourly earnings for San Joaquin Valley farm workers rose to $12.09 during the peak of the harvest season.
Monday, May 6th, 2013 and is filed under Blog, Economy, News, Obamacare
On Friday, the BLS released a better-than-usual jobs report for the month of April. The number of jobs created increased by 168,000, and there were some positive revisions for the past two months. However, when you dig a little deeper into the details, you will find a permanently lethargic job market, endemic of the massive distortions created by Obamacare.
The total increase in jobs was almost completely countermanded by this staggering note: “involuntary part-time workers” increased by 278,000 to a whopping 7.9 million. This means that a number of employers are cutting back their workers to part time (defined as less than 30 hours), so they can avoid the steep costs of paying for their healthcare under Obamacare.
The Obamacare job market reality is also born out in two other statistics. The average weekly hours fell to 34.4 from 34.6, and the average weekly earnings fell to $821.13 from $824.52. Hence, when a jobs report like the one released for April is considered the best report in a while, we are is serious trouble.
Friday, April 5th, 2013 and is filed under Blog, Economy, News
In what’s become a familiar tradition every first Friday of the month, the BLS published its employment report, which shows the unemployment rate dropping even though the jobs numbers were dismal. According to the BLS Establishment Survey of various industries, only 88,000 non-farm payroll jobs were created in March, even though the employment-age population grew by 167,000 over the same time.
So why did the U3 unemployment rate tick down a point to 7.6%?
You guessed it – the labor force shrunk. And it shrunk dramatically.
Tuesday, November 20th, 2012 and is filed under Blog, Economy
Amidst all the fighting over the two approaches to governing, it would be prudent to compare the results of red states vs. blue states. Take a look at today’s unemployment numbers from the states. Compare the states with the highest unemployment vs. those with the lowest unemployment. See a pattern?
Monday, November 12th, 2012 and is filed under Economy, News
According to a new analysis from the National Institute for Labor Relations Research, most of the jobs created since 2009 where in Right to Work states:
At the same time, Right to Work states (again excluding Indiana) were responsible for 72% of all net household job growth across the U.S. from June 2009 through September 2012. If these states’ job increase had been no better than the 0.85% experienced by forced-unionism states as a group, the nationwide job increase would have been less than half as great. And the President wouldn’t have been able even to pretend the economy was in recovery.
Friday, November 2nd, 2012 and is filed under Blog, Economy
If I wanted to be a political hack, I would tell you that this was a terrible jobs report because the unemployment rate rose .1% at a time when we are supposed to be experiencing only growth in the job market. However, the truth is that just like the past few reports which showed the U3 number declining were not good reports; this one is not a bad report. The entire “U3 measure” has become irrelevant.
The U3 rate measures the percentage of people unemployed relative to those who consider themselves in the workforce. The problem is that the definition of the labor force is so murky that we are experiencing frenetic and unrealistic swings in the size of the labor force from one month to another. We are literally seeing an expansion of the labor force by 400k one month, and a contraction of 600k the next month. It’s an obvious flaw in the methodology; nonetheless, it is the single biggest factor in determining the U3 rate.
To that end, we had a number of months with barely any new jobs added, yet the unemployment rate dropped because of the decrease in the size of the labor force, according to the Household survey. This month, we actually had modest growth, 171,000 new payroll jobs in the Establishment Survey, yet the unemployment rate ticked up to 7.9% because the labor force supposedly expanded, according to the Household Survey. Either way, it’s garbage in; garbage out. The previous reports were not good, and this one is not necessarily bad.
The more important thing here is that the broad, long-term picture is dismal. The real unemployment rate is the broader U6 number, which includes everyone who would like to work, including those who have given up because of the bad jobs market and those who are underemployed. As such, the U6 number is not distorted by inaccurate and wild swings in the labor force because it factors in everything. It’s already baked into the cake.
The U6 number stands at 14.6%, the same as when Obama took office. It has remained high, and will continue to remain high until the economy grows and businesses begin to invest their capital. Yet, private investments have actually decreased by 1.3% in the third quarter of this year, most likely a result of Obamacare, Dodd-Frank, and EPA regulations, all of which are forcing companies to sit on their cash.
Even looking at this report in a narrow short-term lens, there is not much good to see. While 171k jobs would be an adequate number in normal economic times, it still woefully low for a recovery from such a deep recession. Remember that the working-age population grew by 211,000 in October, according to the Household Survey. So while 171k is better than most of the previous months, it is still barely keeping up with population growth, much less pulling us out of the nadir of the employment trench. It would take many more years, possibly more than a decade, of this growth rate on a monthly basis just to return to pre-recession employment levels. As AEI’s James Pethokoukis notes, all the jobs lost during the recession in the late 70s and early 80s were recovered in just 10 months.
Moreover, two major factoids from this report that remind us of the long-term stagnation are the long-term unemployed and income. The number of people unemployed for longer than 27 weeks grew by 158k. Also, income has grown by just 1.6% over the past year. That is less than inflation. In other words, income has gone down.
It’s also worth noting that black unemployment ticked up 0.9% to 14.3%. Black unemployment was 12.7% when Obama took office in Jan. 2009. How’s that hope and change working out for you?
Thursday, November 1st, 2012 and is filed under Economy, News
Remember the ADP National Employment Report jobs numbers from September when they observed an increase of 162,000 private sector jobs? Well, that number has been revised down to 88,200. Meanwhile, the October ADP report shows another gain of 158,000. Raise your hand if you think that number will endure?
Wednesday, October 31st, 2012 and is filed under Blog, Debt, Economy, Taxes
We hear news that 62,600 jobs have been eliminated since Sept. 1, the sharpest two-month drop since the start of 2010. We hear news that consumer prices are ready to spike over the next year. We hear news about sharp declines in household income. Then we wonder why we are on such a protracted path of poverty and decline. However, when you consider the cost of the hidden tax of the regulatory state, there is no mystery as to why we are on decline.
Take a look at this chart from the Mercatus Institute, which tracks the growth of federal regulations over the past decade:
The amazing thing is that you could chart the growth of regulations with a straight line increase in poverty, welfare, income decline, and spike in consumer prices. For all the talk of poverty, nothing alleviates the burden of the impoverished like jobs, higher income, and lower prices. Nothing squeezes the poor and working class more than onerous regulations, which kill jobs, depress wages, and raise the cost of producing vital goods and services.
Regulations are a cancer on our economy, and things will never improve unless the next president stems the tide of the regulatory state. That is the only potent weapon in the war on poverty. Take a look at this analysis from CNS news of the latest poverty numbers and welfare spending figures. Can anyone honestly say that more welfare spending in the answer?
The federal government spent enough money on federal means-tested welfare programs to have sent each impoverished household a check for nearly $60,000, according to figures from the Census Bureau and the Congressional Research Service(CRS).
According to a report from the CRS produced for Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.), $1 trillion was spent on federal welfare programs during fiscal year 2011 – with $746 billion in federal funds and $254 in state matching funds.
The U.S. Census Bureau reported that there were approximately 16.8 million households living below the federal poverty level of $23,000 per year for a family of four in 2011. ( See: 2011 Households Below Poverty 2011.pdf )
If each of the estimated 16.8 million households with income below the poverty level were to have received an equal share of the total welfare spending for fiscal year 2011, they each would have received $59,523.
So after spending $60,000 per household per year on welfare programs, poverty is at an all-time high! When will we learn that we can’t tax, regulate, or subsidize our way out of poverty? Our Republic will never recover unless we restore the free market and place a moratorium on major federal regulations. We already tried the Great Society; let’s try something that will actually work.
Thursday, October 11th, 2012 and is filed under Economy, News
So what ever happened with Obama’s promised 5 billion green energy jobs? Here’s the latest Bloomberg analysis:
The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 set aside $90 billion in renewable energy grants and loans for a grab bag of thousands of projects—wind farms, solar installations, natural gas fueling stations, biofuel research, and a $5 billion weatherization project for low-income homes. Digging into the public records of the $21 billion spent so far through 19 U.S. Department of Energy programs reveals 3,960 projects that employ 28,854 people.