Black Turnout Surpassed that of General Population

Friday, January 4th, 2013 and is filed under Blog, Elections, Issues

We have been admonished over the past few years for advocating for voter ID laws.  The left has been accusing us of using such commonsense constitutional protections to suppress minority turnout.  Well, the results of the 2012 elections should countermand that fallacious allegation.  Unfortunately, opponents of fair elections will continue to combat voter ID laws.

According to a new Pew Research Center analysis, the reason why Obama fared so well last November was not necessarily because blacks have grown as a share of the population, but because they have grown as a share of the vote.  In fact, it appears that blacks voted at a higher rate than whites for the first time.  Yes, this is after a number of states implemented voter ID laws.

This is one salient point lost amidst all the punditry over the election results.  How can blacks (an other minorities) enjoy their best turnout election after so many states enacted laws which were supposed to prevent them from voting?  The answer is quite simple.  Voter ID laws preserve fair election for everyone in this country.

Sadly, It All Boils Down To Race

Thursday, November 29th, 2012 and is filed under Blog, Issues

We’ve all heard the post-election bromide about the problems with the GOP; “we are too old, white, and male.”  When you cut through the spin, the motivation behind this summation from the GOP elites is that we ostensibly need to be like Democrats in order to compete with the broader population.  However, when you look through the data, you will find that the problem is not really age or gender; it is all about race.  Even if you buy into the notion that our ideology is hurting us with women and the youth, that is not the case with blacks and immigrants.  They vote Democrat based upon identity politics that is insidiously exercised by white liberals in this country.

We’ve all heard that the youth are fleeing the archaic party of conservatives, right?  Well, according to an analysis by Pew, the youth vote is a lot more complicated than that.  In 2008, Obama won the 18-29 age group by a whopping 34 points.  In 2012, he won the youth by 24 points.  That’s still a large margin, but not representative of a negative trend at all.  But here’s the kicker: Romney actually won the white male vote under 30 by 13 points and even the white female vote by 1 point.  Yes, I know.  You’ll say that whites don’t count.  However, we can conclude from here that our problem with the youth is just a redundant manifestation of our problem with minorities, especially because they comprise such a large portion of the under 30 vote.  But that does not mean we are not appealing to the youth by virtue of age.

Conversely, let’s take a look at the 65+ senior vote.  From the way the commentators speak, one would think that seniors are all voting Republican.  The reality is that 44% of them voted for Obama, just shy of the 45% he got in 2008.  If anything, we can conclude from here that Republicans are underperforming with the demos that are naturally predisposition to vote for them, while Obama is maximizing his demos.

When you cut across all the data, you will definitely find that age and gender play a role in the electoral process.  Sadly, by far, the biggest factor is race.  Romney won the white vote across the vote, even the most liberal demographic – young women.  It’s clear that the sinister race baiting and ethnic pandering is working for Democrats.  So how would all these wizards of smart in our party deal with this problem?  Tilting the party to the left will not help convert voters who largely cast ballots based on identity.  Quite the contrary, the fact that we have not already distinguishing ourselves from the Democrats is what is weighing us down with white voters and seniors.

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Mixed Result for Important Ballot Questions

Tuesday, November 20th, 2012 and is filed under Blog, Elections

When the party fails to turn out the vote on Election Day, the consequences reverberated down the ticket.  In recent years, we have won a number of ballot questions even during tough years like 2008.  Unfortunately, this year is different.  We lost many key ballot questions, especially those that were not in deep red states.  In many instances the result was a reflection of poor wording on the ballot.

Here are the results of some of the ballot questions we highlighted shortly before the elections:

Alabama

  • Obamacare: Amendment 6 would prohibit any coercion to comply with Obamacare mandates.  Passed
  • Labor: Amendment 7 would guarantee the right to a secret ballot in union elections. Passed

California

  • Death Penalty: Proposition 34 would end the death penalty in California.  Failed
  • Taxes: Proposition 30 would uphold Jerry Brown’s motherload of all tax increases; sales tax, income tax, millionaire’s tax…passed

Colorado

  • Campaign Finance: Amendment 65 attempts to end-run the Citizens United decision by urging the state to adopt limits on corporate donations. Passed

Florida

  • Obamacare: Amendment 1 would prevent any law that forces individuals to purchase health insurance. Failed
  • Abortion: Amendment 6 prohibits public funds for abortions. Failed

Georgia

  • School Choice: Amendment 1 gives the state legislature the right to create special schools. Passed

Louisiana

  • Guns: Amendment 2 affirms that the right to bear arms includes acquisition, transport, carry, transfer of firearms.  It is designed as a preemptive strike against judicial activism infringing on the Second Amendment. Passed

Maine

  • Gay Marriage – Question 1 would overturn a voter-approved 2009 ballot measure that banned same-sex marriage in the state. Passed

 

Maryland

  • Dream Act : Maryland will vote on whether to uphold the state law to grant instate tuition to illegal aliens with Question 4. Passed
  • Gay Marriage: Questions 6 places the gay marriage law passed by the Maryland legislature before the voters.  Passed
  • Redistricting: Maryland Democrats passed the most egregious congressional map of all states.  It will net them another House seat.  Voters will decide whether to uphold the map with Question 5. Passed

Michigan

  • Labor: Proposal 2 would enshrine collective bargaining rights for union into the state constitution. Failed
  • Taxes: Proposal 5 would require that increases in state taxes must be approved by either a 2/3 majority in the Legislature or by a statewide vote. Failed
  • Cap and Trade: Proposal 3 would mandate that by 2025, 25% of the state’s electricity must come from renewable resources. Failed

Minnesota

  • Gay Marriage: Amendment 1 would define marriage in the Minnesota Constitution as between one man and one woman in the state. Failed
  • Voter ID: Amendment 2 would require voters to show picture ID before voting in the state. Failed

Missouri

  • Obamacare: Proposition E would prevent the governor from establishing the healthcare exchanges required under Obamacare. Passed
  • Taxes: Increase tobacco tax Failed

Montana

  • Abortion: LR-120 would require parental notification before abortions are performed. Passed
  • Illegal Immigration:  LR-121 would require proof of citizenship in order for a person to receive certain services provided by the state. Passed
  • Obamacare: LR-122 would prohibit any coercion to comply with Obamacare mandates. Passed
  • Campaign Finance: I-166 would ban certain corporate contributions and expenditures in state and national elections.  This is yet another attempt to circumvent the Citizens United ruling. Passed

New Hampshire

  • Taxes: CACR 13 would institute a constitutional ban on any implementation of a state income tax. Failed

Oklahoma

  • Affirmative Action: State Question 759 would ban affirmative action programs in the state, and would prohibit special treatment based on race or sex in public employment, education and contracts.  Passed

 

Oregon

  • Taxes: Measure 84 phases out estate/inheritance tax, tax on death-related property transfers, and tax on property transfers between family members. Failed

Virginia

  • Eminent Domain: Question 1 would prohibit eminent domain from being used for private enterprise. Passed

Washington

  • Taxes: Initiative 1185 would require either two-thirds legislative approval or a vote by the people in order to raise taxes. Passed
  • Gay Marriage: Referendum 74 puts the issue of gay marriage before the voters. Passed

Wyoming

  • Obamacare: Constitutional Amendment A would prohibit any coercion to comply with Obamacare mandates.  Passed

In addition, the following states will be voting on some form of legalizing marijuana:  Arkansas (medical) Failed, Colorado (recreational) Passed, Massachusetts (medical) Passed

 

What Arizona Teaches Us About Politics of Illegal Immigration

Tuesday, November 13th, 2012 and is filed under Blog, Elections, Immigration

If you only listened to the media and Republican consultants during the days following the election, you would hear the following erroneous premises about the Hispanic vote and the issue of illegal immigration.

1)      Our opposition to the circuitous cycle of amnesty and open borders is the sole reason why we are losing the Hispanic vote.

2)      Immediate and unconditional support for illegal immigrants will win us back those votes.

3)      An aggressive campaign for their vote on social issues will not help win them over.

4)      We would somehow be able to get to the left of Democrats on the issue without encouraging a bidding war (Democrats: “We’ll allow for chain migration of all your relatives.”)

Aside for the fact that these assertions are far from being inviolable truths, there is one other point that has been overlooked throughout the entire post-election debate: the other 90% of the electorate.

Obama ran a wedge-issue campaign in which he used illegal immigration to galvanize Hispanic turnout at the ballot box.  But wedge issues cut both ways.  While Obama can use them to make gains with some demographics, he should lose at least as many with the rest of the electorate.  However, Republicans never rubbed the issue back in his nose.  Hence, Obama enjoyed the gain of employing wedge issue attacks without incurring the loss.  That is…except for one state.

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21 Thoughts and Observations on the Election

Thursday, November 8th, 2012 and is filed under Blog, Elections, Family Values, Immigration, Obamacare

1)      Obama won by running a divisive wedge issues-based campaign in the right locations, in conjunction with a killer ground game.  He ran up huge margins with blacks in VA and OH.  He played the amnesty card with Hispanics in CO, NV, and FL.  He played the war on women card with white women in NH, WI, and IO.  But wedge issues, such as immigration and gay marriage cut both ways.  While Obama can use them to make gains with some demographics, he should lose at least as many with a surge in Evangelical voters who are against gay marriage and blue collar workers who are against illegal immigration (and gay marriage).  Romney conceded those issues and didn’t return the favor of the wedge.  Hence, Obama enjoyed the gain of employing wedge issue attacks without incurring the loss.

2)      Romney won 32% of the Jewish vote.  Believe it or not, that is the highest share since 84/88.  At least some people are moving in the right direction.

3)      For all the talk of Republicans facing an insurmountable demographic juggernaut with single women, minorities, and youth, the talking heads fail to explain that Democrats are losing their own demographics.  Romney won Independents by 5 points, and he won whites by the largest margin since Reagan.  However, it’s clear that there is more room to grow in those two demos.  To the extent that Obama gains on social issues, such as immigration and marriage with some of his demos, had Romney fought back on those issues, he could have driven up turnout more among his favorable demos.  This is born out of the fact that Romney failed to turn out 2 million voters that McCain turned out (who himself underperformed Bush’s vote total by 2 million).  Based upon exit polling data of Republicans as a share of the electorate, Bush received about 41.66 million Republican votes and Romney got 35.28 million votes.  Romney’s number will grow before the election results are completely certified, but there’s a large gap to make up.

4)      Where are those disaffected Republicans?  Why are they not voting?  Is it because our message is too coherently conservative?  Are they overlapped with the Evangelicals who didn’t turn out?  According to Dave Wasserman of Cook Report, turnout in OK, KS, MO, TN, WV, IN, was likely down at least 5% from 08.  There simply was no GOP enthusiasm.  Maybe an even more moderate candidate like Jon Huntsman will stir up their juices.

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A Programming Note for Tonight and Tomorrow

Tuesday, November 6th, 2012 and is filed under Blog, Elections, News

As we all know, there is a lot at stake today in our country.  It’s not just the presidential elections.  There are important Senate races, House races, state legislative battles, and ballot questions.  We will be breaking down the results of all the important results late tonight and tomorrow.  The House race results, in particular, will change the orientation of the chamber, even if the partisan split remains essentially unchanged.  Between redistricting and retirements, there will be dozens of new members.  We will sift through the rubble to see how this affects the conservative members in Congress.

Here are our pieces on the other offices and questions at stake tonight.  You can use this as a guide and a checklist to see how we are progressing:

State Legislatures

Governors

House

Ballot Questions

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A Pre-Election Prediction

Tuesday, November 6th, 2012 and is filed under Blog, Elections

Everyone in my field is coming out with predictions, so I figured I’d throw my hat into the ring.  Let me stress that the important thing is for us to win and turn out the vote.  The punditry, analysis, and ‘who was right horse race talk’ is secondary.  Moreover, the real fight for our country will begin in earnest when Congress returns next week, irrespective of who wins the election.  We are committed to fighting for limited government, free markets, an America-first foreign policy, and traditional American values here at the Madison Project.  That is something that will not change with the outcome of the elections.

With that said, I’m predicting a 295-243 Romney victory.

Ultimately, there has been a clear trend in this election over the past few weeks.  Romney is leading in enthusiasm, winning Independents, and hitting early voting benchmarks in all the key states that have early voting except for Nevada.  The momentum was blunted slightly by a small bump for Obama following Hurricane Sandy.  Rasmussen seems to indicate that the bump has subsided.  While I believe that the bump will still cut into the larger margin of victory that I initially anticipated, it will not be enough to alter the fundamental trajectory of the race.

Even according to the polls that show the race tied or Obama ahead, Romney would clearly be leading in the event that the D vs. R turnout reflects anything that the anecdotal evidence is indicating.  Rasmussen and Gallup are actually predicting a Republican edge in turnout tomorrow.  If that is the case, this thing will not be close.  I don’t anticipate there to be an R edge; however, I think that a D+2-+3 turnout would still lead to a Romney victory – even using the media polls.

Even though most national polls have the election either dead-even or one of them with a 1-point lead, Romney appears to have regained his lead among Independents in the most recent polls.  The final Rasmussen poll showed Romney leading by 15; ARG showed+12, Monmouth showed +16, and CNN showed a whopping +22. Some of these numbers are clearly too high, but even if you adjust them to a 7-10 point lead, it’s hard to see how Obama makes up the ground with his base.  He would have to replicate the 2008 turnout model of D+7 or greater in order to overcome the deficit with Independents – a proposition that would require both a depressed GOP turnout and a repeat performance of his record minority and youth turnout 4 years ago.  The early voting turnout and the enthusiasm gap in the polling have proven that model to be demonstrably false for this election.  Remember that Obama only won Independents by 7 points 4 years ago.

Running down the list of states – it’s a no-brainer to me that Romney wins North Carolina and Florida.  It won’t be close.

Virginia: I believe that Virginia will be close, but Romney should win based on his consistently positive polling with Independents and the strong turnout advantage in early voting for the conservative parts in the state relative to the urban areas.

Colorado: Republicans have the lead in early voting in Colorado.  It’s hard to see Obama overcoming that when election day voting is so much more Republican to begin with.  Also, Independents in Colorado have soured on Obama more than anywhere else.

Iowa: Republicans have met the benchmarks for early voting in Iowa and are on target to match Bush’s 2004 numbers.  The newspaper endorsements had a huge effect and even some of the skewed polls have the race tied.

New Hampshire: While most polls show New Hampshire tied or Obama slightly ahead, they also show Romney with a massive lead among Independents.  Both of these data points cannot be true.  Therefore, with Romney’s solid advantage among Independents, in conjunction with the overly white demographic, this one should turn red.

Ohio: I fully subscribe to Karl Rove’s early voting math.  Democrats have lost a net of 265,000 early votes relative to 2008 – wiping out Obama’s margin of victory in the state.  All polls show Romney winning the election day vote.  That should be enough to put him over the top.

Wisconsin: I have full faith in the ground game of the Republican Party and tea party groups in Wisconsin.  They turned out a huge victory for Scott Walker, and if the D vs. R split is even close to the recall election, many of the media polls would show Romney ahead.  Moreover, the gap between early voting turnout of the conservative Milwaukee suburbs and liberal Dane County is the same it was during the Walker recall.  That’s a good omen.

Among the states I think Romney will lose are Nevada, Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania.

Nevada: The minority growth and the Democrat machine in the state have become insurmountable.  Early voting already shows that.

Michigan: Romney never really made a play for it, and even Rasmussen’s last poll had him down 5.  The auto bailout factor is also in full force.

Minnesota: I think this one will be much closer than anyone would have imagined a few weeks ago – maybe within 2-3 points.  However, ultimately we have not invested enough time to harness the GOP trend in the state.  It will take one more election cycle.

Pennsylvania: Of these 4 states, I think PA is the most likely to turn red.  I would love nothing more than a PA victory.  I ultimately think that Romney will blow it out in central and western PA, and will even win the Philly suburban Bucks County.  However, I believe that Obama will turn out enough of his base in the inner city (along with some help from voter fraud) that he will need more to overcome the margin.  I just don’t see him winning enough of the other suburban Philly upscale voters in Montgomery and Delaware counties to pull out a victory.  I see him coming within 1-2%, but coming up heartrendingly short.

That’s how we get to 295 electoral votes for Romney.  I think he’ll win the popular vote by about 1.5%.

This is my prediction, but I recognize, as all my colleagues do, that this is a very murky pre-election period.  Anything could happen.  As conservatives, we must be prepared for any result.

An Election Night Primer on the House Races

Friday, November 2nd, 2012 and is filed under Blog, Elections

There’s been a lot of attention focused on the race for the Senate this year.  The House races, on the other hand, have become a forgotten footnote on the 2012 election map.  The reason is quite simple: Republicans will retain control of the House, irrespective of the outcome of the presidential election.

At present, Republicans control 242 seats and Democrats control 193 seats (a few of the seats are actually vacant due to early resignations.)  Democrats would have to enjoy a wave election in order to bridge the 25-seat gap, and at this point, the election is at best a wash.  Due to the aggressive redistricting efforts on the part of Democrats in the states they control, they are favored by many analysts to net a few more seats this cycle.  However, due to the conservative approach by the GOP in shoring up their existing majority, they will easily hold onto their majority.  Moreover, in the event that Romney wins at the top of the ticket, it’s not beyond the realm of possibilities for Republicans to net more seats at the end of the night.

Even several weeks ago, the most likely outcome was a Democrat net gain of 5-10 seats.  However, Republicans have come on strong in the House races; a phenomenon that has largely gone under the radar.  The way I see it is that Republicans will net 12 more seats over Democrats through reapportionment and redistricting that has created near-certain GOP pickups and Democrat loses.  Then there are roughly 22 Republican pickup “opportunities,” 26 Democrat opportunities, and 4 shared opportunities (newly created seats).  Democrats have a decent shot in 15-18 of those seats.  Then again, Republicans have a fair shot at flipping 10 competitive Democrat seats.  Even if we give the majority of tossups to Democrats, it’s hard to see how they pick up more than a few seats.  I will go on record as going against the grain and predicting a 0-3 seat net gain for the GOP.

Here is a list of potential or inevitable Democrat and Republican pickup opportunities to watch for on election night, in order of the poll closing times (E.S.T.) by state.  These are the races that will alter the orientation of the House:

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The Latest in Unrealistic, Contradictory Polling

Wednesday, October 31st, 2012 and is filed under Blog, Elections

We are seeing the same narrative play out in the world of polling on a daily basis.  Polls continue to show Obama leading, not just in Ohio, but in states where most people believe to be in the bag for Romney, such as Florida and Virginia (and even some polls in NC).  At the same time, the polls continue to show the partisan turnout to be more favorable to Obama than in 2008, even though he is losing the white vote by historic margins and failing to energize minorities and young voters to the same degree he did 4 years ago.

However, all polls consistently show Romney leading, often by double digits, among Independents.  Remember that Bush actually lost Independents by one point nationally in 2004.  In other words, these polls don’t compute.

Here are some new examples from today:

CBS/New York Times/Quinnipiac:  They polled 3 battleground states and showed Obama leading 50-45 in Ohio, 48-47 in Florida, and 49-47 in Virginia.  Even if you buy into the Obama Ohio juggernaut, does anyone really think he’s ahead in Florida?

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The 47%

Tuesday, October 30th, 2012 and is filed under Blog, Elections

One of the most portentous comments ever made by a candidate concerning his own campaign prospects was Romney’s off-the-record remark about Obama having an automatic 47% floor of support.  The media attack dogs lambasted him for his “out of touch” sentiments.  The reality is that Romney hit the nail on the head months before the pollsters would coalesce around that number.

Let’s confront an inconvenient reality: anyone who votes for Obama at this point is either inexorably dependent upon socialism or incorrigibly out of touch with American values.  It’s not just the economy.  Obama’s egregious disregard for the situation in Libya – one that he created in the first place – and the insidious cover-up of the attack that is continuing to this day, should be sufficient reason to dissuade any judicious voter from supporting him.  Yet, despite Romney’s surge and likely win next week, Obama is still garnering exactly ……47% of the vote.

Yesterday’s Pew national poll had Obama at 47%.

Today’s NPR/Democracy Corp. poll (Democrat) has Obama at 47%.

Rasmussen has had Obama at 47% for over a week.

GW/ Battleground is predicting a 52-47% win for Romney.

Even in blue states like Minnesota and Oregon, Obama is now at…. 47%.

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