Tuesday, March 7th, 2017 and is filed under Blog, Elections, Issues, Policy
Those of us who have watched the Republican party (and challenged it) over the last few years had a sneaking suspicion that whatever “repeal” of Obamacare that was going to be put forward by Republican leadership in the House likely wasn’t going to be a repeal bill. It might tweak the edges of it, but it wasn’t going to repeal Obamacare.
It turns out we were wrong.
It’s far worse.
The bill put forward yesterday (among other things) does the following:
*Does not repeal Obamacare.
*Mandates continuous insurance coverage at the risk of a new 30% penalty for people who drop their coverage.
*Creates a new subsidy in the form of tax credits even for those who do not pay income taxes.
*Keeps various Obamacare mandates in place until 2020. In essence, until the next Presidential election.
Wednesday, March 1st, 2017 and is filed under Blog, Elections, Issues
The great running coach and physiologist, Dr. Jack Daniels (yes, that’s his real name) has a saying when it comes to training: What is the purpose of this workout? It’s a great question because to become a great runner or athlete, or great at anything, you have to have a purpose. You have to have goals.
Our purpose here at the Madison Project has always been to identify, recruit and fund great conservative candidates. We also challenge the Washington, DC Establishment, holding them accountable for the campaign promises they have made over multiple election cycles and have no intention of fulfilling. The repeal of Obamacare is now at the forefront of these broken GOP promises.
The other day we posted exactly what the GOP Establishment is hoping to do with what is being termed “RINOCare.” Not only is it not a repeal of Obamacare, it locks in the more onerous elements of Obamacare, the very things we as conservatives are hoping to repeal and House leadership is not taking kindly to the pushback they are getting from conservatives in the House.
For instance, this story that ran in Politico yesterday about Congressman Mark Meadows’ wife sending what appears to be an email to friends about how House leadership is attempting to mislead the very voters that gave Trump the White House and the Republicans majorities in the House and Senate.
We know exactly how this went down. A communications staffer in one of the leadership offices got wind of the email and quickly leaked it to the press in hopes of shaming Congressman Meadows and his wife into silence (“How dare the rank and file disagree with us!”).
The reverse has happened. Instead of shaming House conservatives into silence, stories like this one have only emboldened them to continue to do the right thing. They ran and won on the promise to repeal Obamacare. They will work towards that end. Not towards a partial repeal. Or a repeal in name only that only adds more subsidies and more debt to our already massive national debt.
Which brings us to the purpose of the Madison Project. There are a host of great conservative groups out there. We are fans of the Club for Growth and the Senate Conservatives Fund. They, like us, work tirelessly to look for and elect great conservatives. Where they tactically spend more time on the “air way” with TV and radio ads, we spend more time on the ground with voter ID and Get Out The Vote Work. While working towards a common goal, we all do things a little differently and because we all make decisions independent of each other, we went out on a limb in 2012 and were the first PAC to endorse Mark Meadows in his initial run for Congress. There was just something about him and the way he handled his candidate interview with us. While some tried to label him as a stealth Establishment candidate, we were confident from the start that Mark would be a conservative stalwart in the House and he has been exactly that. Has he been perfect? No. But no elected official ever is. But there’s a reason Mark has scored and continues to score well on the official (and unofficial, behind the scenes) conservative scorecards-because his instincts are conservative.
Our work is clearly not finished. Every election cycle gives us more chances to elect more Mark Meadows, more Jim Bridestines, more Ted Cruzs and Mike Lees.
This is our purpose. This is why we exist and we are glad to see our candidates like Mark Meadows not only fulfill his campaign promises but stand on principle in Washington, DC.
Tuesday, February 28th, 2017 and is filed under Blog, Elections, Issues
Republicans are about to blow the easiest election promise-the repeal of Obamacare. Right now all the chatter on Capitol Hill is about “repeal and replace.”
Why is this a problem?
First, it takes the focus off of repeal and puts it on replace. Conservatives and Republicans ran for 3 cycles on repealing Obamacare. Only in the last couple of years have Republicans focused on replace.
We should repeal Obamacare by using the 2015 bill, outright. Period. End of discussion.
Then there should be a 1-2 year transition off the exchanges and off of Medicaid. Once Obamacare is repealed, we can focus on what replace looks like.
Second, the replacement. The replacement the Republicans are talking about right now is focusing on coverage numbers and coverage numbers only. They are going to keep the Medicaid expansion as to not “punish” the states that did not expand Medicaid. The Republican plan wants to provide individuals covered under the expansion with advanced, refundable tax credits.
This is a real problem.
A major difference between the Obamacare subsidies and the the Republican plan is that Obamacare’s subsidies are currently based on income. The more you make, the less in subsidies you get. The Republican plan will likely cost more. The Republican plan moves the subsidy from an income based payment to an age based payment – meaning everyone in an age range will qualify for something.
Those subsidies are going to be costly, but no one knows how costly because the Congressional Budge Office has not scored the bill yet.
Third, there are substantial pro-life concerns. When providing an advanced, refundable tax credit, there will be issues with how those are used to cover “healthcare” expenses. House leadership will say that conscience protections, similar to H.R. 7 passed this year, will be sufficient. That is, however, misleading at best. The House might be able to pass this legislation, but likely will not survive the Senate’s reconciliation process.
Moreover, any conscience protections will apply to current funding and current programs. There are concerns that the Republican’s new program, to provide tax credits, won’t be captured in those conscience protections.
Some conservatives are voicing opposition to the plan. They know this won’t be full repeal and are saying so. They are, unfortunately, a minority. While protecting the most moderate members of the conference, Republican House leadership is going to put a bill on the House floor that codifies some of the worst parts of Obamacare and then call it full repeal.
We cannot let them do this.
At that point, conservatives, while being shut out of all the closed door meetings, will have a choice. They can vote against the repeal & replacement legislation leaving them to explain why the legislation isn’t full repeal.
Or they can vote for the legislation, compromising on entitlements and most likely on the federal funding of abortion.
So please, pick up your phone and call your Members of Congress. The Capitol switchboard number is (202) 224-3121. If you need to look up who your Members of Congress are, click here for the House and click here for the Senate!
Let Washington, DC hear your voice before it’s too late!
Friday, June 19th, 2015 and is filed under Blog, Economy, Issues
At this point in his presidency, President Obama is trying to do anything he can in order to get his final agenda through.
The trade deal proposed by the President between twelve different countries was rejected by his own fellow Democrats. Even House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) refused to support the president in passing key legislation that would be necessary to eventually get the trade deal underway. Clearly they are coming at it from a different angle than we are, kowtowing to the labor union oligarchs.
Let’s be very clear. We love free trade. These trade deals that the Obama Administration is pushing along with Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) and Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) are not free trade vehicles.
Because of issues we’ve already laid out, the Trade Promotion Authority must be defeated as must the trade deal called the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which would unite countries in the East like Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam, and New Zealand, with countries in the West like Peru, Mexico, Canada, and of course, the United States.
The deal would include a total of twelve of the world’s largest economies, constituting an overall forty percent of the world’s economy. Tied to this, President Obama continues to advocate for fast track authority, which would in turn allow him to submit a trade deal to Congress with limited debate on the proposal and a bar Congress’ ability to amend the deal. Talk about undermining checks and balances in a democratic republic.
The President argues that the trade agreement would not only make it easier to import goods from other countries, but it would also make it easier to export goods domestically produced, thus creating American jobs and benefiting American businesses. Creating the world’s largest free trade agreement would, at least the President hopes, allow the United States to better control the way that things are regulated in the world economy.
Let’s be honest, what the President is really aiming to do is to have more control over China regarding trade, the way that labor is conducted, environmental concerns and more. This isn’t really about helping the American people: the President’s agenda focuses on controlling export giant China. It’s about control, not opportunity.
And frankly, who is he kidding anyway-control China?!
In order to try and compensate for the outsourcing of American jobs, the President proposes a Trade Adjustment Assistance Program, which would provide aid (relocation assistance, subsidized health care insurance, some unemployment benefits) to those who lose their jobs because of jobs being sent overseas. Note, however, that this program is nothing new: it was introduced by President Kennedy in 1962 when he agreed to a trade round and it was implemented to help the labor union’s protectionist monopolies.
Another aspect of the program that isn’t being mentioned is the cost: it would cost about $1.8 billion in order to fund the expansion through 2020, taking nearly $700 million from certain Medicare programs in 2025.
While the bill has received much opposition, it has also received some support from those in the GOP Establishment’s leadership. Speaker of the House John Boehner has advocated amongst fellow Republicans in favor of the deal and Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is quietly looking for vehicles to attach the reauthorization of the Export-Import Bank to.
At this stage, let’s just say that whatever those two are for, we are against.
On top of this, studies show that those who took TAA benefits as opposed to regular unemployment benefits are worse off. The study also showed that those who were younger were more likely to benefit from the program as opposed to older workers.
It’s important to see though the supposed measure that as being billed as the vehicle that will increase exports, create American jobs, and help the American economy, but at what cost? Any measure that would hurt the American people and continue to empower large corporations and a big government, is not a deal that should be considered or made at all.
The President’s so called efforts to help the American businesses and employees out is a wolf in sheep’s clothing to increase the scope of control of the government while hurting American businesses and jobs in the process.
Tuesday, March 31st, 2015 and is filed under Blog, Immigration, Issues
There have been three votes the United States House of Representatives have taken this Congress that have been of grave importance to the conservative movement.
The first was the vote for Speaker of the House, which 25 Republican members opposed the liberal House leadership and voted for someone other than John Boehner.
The second was against the DHS bill, which funded Obama’s unlawful executive amnesty. For this vote 75 Republicans joined with Democrats and voted for the bill. The conservative vote was a “No” vote.
The third, which happened this past week, was the vote for the “Doc Fix” bill, H.R. 2. This bill broke the hopes of a budget, yet only 33 Republicans voted “No”.
Madison Project would like to thank those 37 members who stood up for conservative principles and voted “No” on HR2.
Rep. Mo Brooks
Rep. Gary Palmer
Rep. David Schweikert
Rep. Tom McClintock
Rep. Darrell Issa
Rep. Ken Buck
Rep. Ron DeSantis
Rep. David Jolly
Rep. Barry Loudermilk
Rep. Tom Graves
Rep. Raul Labrador
Rep. Jan Schakowsky
Rep. Randy Hultgren
Rep. Peter Visclosky
Rep. Rod Blum
Rep. Steve King
Rep. Tim Huelskamp
Rep. Thomas Massie
Rep. Justin Amash
Rep. Scott Garrett
Rep. Jerrold Nadler
Rep. Walter Jones
Rep. Mark Meadows
Rep. Jim Jordan
Rep. Jim Bridenstine
Rep. Mark Sanford
Rep. Mick Mulvaney
Rep. Scott DesJarlais
Rep. Jim Cooper
Rep. Louie Gohmert
Rep. Sam Johnson
Rep. John Ratcliffe
Rep. Kenny Marchant
Rep. Dave Brat
Rep. James Sensenbrenner
Rep. Glenn Grothman
Rep. Cynthia Lummis
Monday, March 30th, 2015 and is filed under Blog, Elections, Issues, Policy
It is a pattern we have witnessed for years, but especially the last four election cycles.
It goes something like this.
The Republican Party messages to the conservative grassroots: if you turn out and vote us into a majority, we will accomplish X, Y and Z.
X, Y and Z happen to be THE issues the grassroots are concerned about.
The conservative grassroots responds and delivers the majority (or in 2000 and 2004, the Presidency) in one or both chambers of Congress under the illusion of a GOP majority advancing conservatism and rolling back rampant government expansion.
Then, Lucy-like, the GOP majority pulls the ball just as the conservative movement goes for the extra point. As the grassroots conservatives dust themselves off wondering what just happened, the GOP spin machine kicks into high gear. “We are with you, but the timing isn’t right.” Or, “The work isn’t done. We have the majorities in both the House and Senate, but we need the White House to REALLY get things done.”
Then stories like this one from The Hill crop up, an obvious attempt by the GOP leadership to set the stage for further abdication on critical issues, this one being the repeal of Obamacare. First comes the above messaging, then the leaked stories to bolster the GOP Establishment’s messaging: We are trying, but there isn’t anything we can do right now on your issues.
Except for one problem.
The GOP is lying to the conservative base in hopes that no one will challenge their messaging.
As we have noted many times, this is why the Madison Project exists. To challenge the GOP Establishment’s progressive, big government tendencies. We do it on all fronts, from recruiting full spectrum conservatives to run against middling incumbents to prosecuting the case against a GOP gone awry.
This is why we are launching, today, our new series of Policy Memos. From bullet points to in-depth analysis of the issues, our memos will be brief and powerful, the perfect tool for challenging the GOP messaging machine.
As the Mitch McConnell and Co. attempt to set the stage for the inability to repeal Obamacare through budget reconciliation, we make the case in our first Policy Memo for why this is absolutely wrong and, point by point, lay out exactly how the GOP can accomplish one of its stated policy goals: the full repeal of Obamacare (dare we say, ripping it out root and branch).
It is time for the conservative movement to be discontent with the milquetoast leadership of the Republican Party that not only refuses to fight for them in Washington, DC, but more often than not works against them.
To read our first Policy Memo, click the following link:
Wednesday, March 18th, 2015 and is filed under Blog, Issues
Yesterday, Democrat Eliot Engel (D-N.Y.) introduced the Armor Piercing Bullets Act, a bill that would ban the M855 “Green tipped” ammunition commonly used in AR-15 rifles. Engel’s bill is based upon the proposed ban of the M855 round in February by the ATF.
The workaround proposed by the ATF follows this line of reasoning:
Under the 1986 Officer protection Act the M855 ammunition is legal. The reason the ATF is proposing to ban M855 ammunition is because of the AR-15 pistol, claiming that the appearance of the AR-15 pistol makes the M855 ammunition more likely to be used to attack a police officer.
By leaping to several conclusions, the ATF decided to come up with their own interpretation of the Law Enforcement Officers Protection Act of 1986. Because of their interpretation, they feel justified in preemptively banned types of ammunition for legal weapons.
This is just one more example of the Obama Administration allowing appointed bureaucracies to try and set precedent and interpret law instead of working through the legislative process.
Many European countries now under onerous gun control laws and civilians cannot own military caliber weapons because they started down this slippery slope years ago.
Some will argue that the Founders did not envision every American owning an AR-15. We would argue in return that they did and that the musket and rifles of their day were AR-15s. Their original intent was twofold: an armed citizenry constrained government and those inside it who wished to abuse power and an armed citizenry was a ready made army ready to leap to the defense of their country.
So what are the three best ways we can fight for our 2nd Amendment rights?
1. Call your Representative. The Democrats have filed a bill in Congress to outlaw M855 ammunition because they realize their ban by bureaucracy is failing. Make sure your representative knows to vote against this bill. To reach your representative, call the Capitol switchboard at 202-224-3121.
2. Call your Senators (also at 202-224-3121). Obama has appointed Loretta Lynch to be Attorney General and the Senate is set to vote on her confirmation either this week or next. Eric Holder showed himself to be ineffective and willing to push Obama’s anti-gun agenda, and Loretta Lynch will be pushing the same restrictive gun policies that Obama and the Democrats are interested in.
3. Stop giving money to groups that endorse and fund bad politicians. The Senate confirmation of Loretta Lynch is going to be a close vote and groups like the National Rifle Association have endorsed and given money to Democrats like Senator Harry Reid and others, not based on principle, but for access. For many gun owners who are under the impression that the NRA represents them, we think it is time for reflection. How can a group that knowingly endorses Democrats, who they know will vote for Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid as leadership, who in turn actively work against the 2nd Amendment, claim to fight for the 2nd Amendment? Their very arguments are undermined by their actions.
4. Republican leadership in both chambers is, again, absent from this fight. Speaker John Boehner’s name is glaringly not on the letter sent to ATF Director Todd Jones regarding the banning of M855. As “leadership” Boehner and McConnell should have been leading this push back against an overreaching bureaucracy. They are not.
Tuesday, March 17th, 2015 and is filed under Blog, Elections, Issues
For those that have missed the memo, we here at the Madison Project love being agitators for freedom.
We want to hold elected officials accountable even as we work to elect better and better Members of Congress. We work to advance conservatism as frequently and as purely as possible, be it reducing taxes, ending abortion or working towards dismantling Obamacare.
So it is no surprise that over the past 10 years as Madison Project has brought to the public’s attention the voting record of Democrats and Republicans, we have been attacked by both parties.
The usual GOP talking points against the Madison Project (and Senate Conservatives Fund, the Club for Growth and Heritage Action) is that the Madison Project is “hurting the party” and forming “circular firing squads” that are “not helpful” to the GOP majority. By hurting the party, what the GOP Establishment is saying is, “You’re hurting our chances to advance the issues important to corporations and their lobbyists by calling us out and electing conservatives.”
If our work is hurting this current iteration of the Republican Party, count us in.
As we have said in the past, it is we and our conservative allies who actually represent and work towards the principles and ideology which the GOP claims to represent and advance. We are the free market conservatives who believe in liberty and reducing government, not growing it and giving corporations a leg up on the backs of the American taxpayers.
Over the last few election cycles, it is the Madison Project that has helped add some of the most stalwart conservatives in both chambers of Congress: Senators Mike Lee and Ted Cruz, Congressman Jim Bridenstine, Mark Meadows, Ron DeSantis, Tim Huelskamp, Dave Brat, Jody Hice and many others.
Conservative grassroots activists worked overtime last fall to elect a Republican majority on promises of rolling back Obamacare and stopping illegal immigration.
Now sitting under Republican majorities, these promises have not only been vacated but actually reversed where we’ve seen Republican leaders working with Democrats to actually help to enact these dangerous policies.
For years we have warned that it’s not just about having a Republican majority in both chambers. It’s about having conservatives eager to fight and advance the Republican Party platform. It’s not just a vote, it’s a voice.
The recently passed Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding bill is the perfect example. The House of Representatives passed a good bill, replete with riders that stripped funding for Obama’s executive amnesty order and sent it to the Senate.
The Senate, under Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s “leadership” stripped the riders from the bill and sent it back to the House.
Here is where it should have been easy: Boehner and the House Republicans should have stripped the bad language out, put the conservative language back in, and sent it back to McConnell.
Instead, 100% of House Democrats and 75 Republicans, including the Speaker, and most of “leadership” and members with all-important seniority, voted to fund executive amnesty behind the fig leaf of, “If we don’t, the Department of Homeland Security will shut down and we will be totally exposed to terrorism.” Nothing could have been further from the truth.
The simple workaround would have been to pass a continuing resolution that would have fully funded DHS while holding the line on amnesty. It is now abundantly clear to everyone that John Boehner and Mitch McConnell never intended to fight amnesty. After all, their friends on K Street and at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce were pushing for it.
If this doesn’t make it abundantly clear that it is time for new leadership, we’re not sure what will.
Tuesday, March 10th, 2015 and is filed under Blog, Elections, Issues
It’s time for a third party.
That’s what 60% of Americans say according to the September 2014 Gallup poll. Why? Because more and more Americans see little difference between the Democrats and Republicans.
We have noted many times on this blog and in the press that the “game” being played in Washington, DC is rigged. It’s as if we’re watching the Harlem Globetrotters (the Democrats) and the Washington Generals (the Republicans) play a basketball game where the outcome was decided in the locker room. The game is over before it even started.
It goes something like this:
Harry Reid: Here’s what we’re really going to get accomplished today in Washington, DC. We’re going to protect Obama’s amnesty for the sake of optics and Mitch, you’re going to tell your corporate buddies we did this one for them and they need to keep the PAC checks coming.
Mitch McConnell: You got it, Harry. Nice eye patch, by the way. Looks good on you. Kind of got that pirate swagger thing going.
Harry Reid: Right back at you, Mitch. That’s a great nickname, btw. Darth Vader. Where do your folks come up with stuff like that? I just get the boxer references all the time. They’re not bad, but. . .Darth Vader. It’s got some zip to it. Hey, has anyone seen Boehner? That guy is always disappearing at the worst times.
Voice from the back of the room: He’s out for a smoke break.
Harry Reid: And right before game time. I told him to knock that crap off. It’s bad optics. That and that tanning business. Who does that these days?!
Staffer (popping into the room): 5 minutes until go time!
Harry Reid: Right, okay. Back on track. Everyone in. Remember. The goal of today’s game is to really show our supporters and donors that we’re fighting for them. Gotta be a great show, let’s keep it close until the buzzer and then we’ll win. So, everyone in. On the count of three we shout, “Team.”
Mitch McConnell: Wait a second. You always lead the huddle cheer, Harry, and you guys always win. It’s my turn today. I’m the Majority Leader after all.
Harry Reid: Riiiight. Like I said, we’re going to put on a good show for folks out there today. Down to the buzzer. Everyone in. On three we shout, “Team!”
Mitch McConnell: Wait a second, wait a second. Which team are we shouting, “Team” for? Yours or mine, Harry?
Harry Reid: Ours, Mitch. Ours.
Mitch McConnell: Ok, got it.
And out they go to face the press day in and day out to prove that they are really fighting for their voters.
But are they?
Clearly, the Democrats have a case to make that they are holding up their end of their campaign promises. Ramming Obamacare through? Check. Destroying border security for La Raza and others? Check. Passing motor voter laws and defeating Voter ID laws? Check.
And while the Democrats are creating seismic change with their actions, change that will affect America for generations to come, the Republicans are touting the “job creating” Keystone Pipeline (it is projected to create 30,000 jobs at a time when over 100 million working age Americans are jobless.), the “Firing of Harry Reid” (for why this didn’t and doesn’t matter, see above) and tweaking Obamacare, not repealing it in toto.
The Republicans are empty suits, intent on staying in power when really only the vestige of it is in reach for this current crop of would be leaders.
So what are the conservative grassroots to do? Abandon the Republican Party?
The temptation is real.
Until we are reminded of principled fighters like Congressmen Jim Bridenstine and Tim Huelskamp and Jim Jordan and other conservatives in the United States House of Representatives, many of whom were elected over the last three election cycles.
Are they winning? In one sense, yes. They defeated the reauthorization of No Child Left Behind. Did they beat back funding of amnesty in the DHS bill? No, but they forced John Boehner and Mitch McConnell to show their true colors. Those two wanted amnesty just as badly as Harry Reid and the Democrats did, just for different reasons. But given the results of November, both of them had to put up the appearance of a fight.
Now that the Boehner and McConnell have had to show their cards, it is more clear than ever that conservatives have a chance to resume control of their party. We believe the Gallup poll above indicates that the American people want a clear difference in Washington, DC and that they want elected officials who work for them, not special interest groups who do not have their best interests in mind.
So instead of talking about creating a third party, conservatives need to refocus, prepare for 2016 and help elect more like Jim Bridenstine, Tim Huelskamp and Jim Jordan.
We can still win.
Wednesday, March 4th, 2015 and is filed under Blog, Elections, Issues
Yesterday was probably one of the biggest votes this Congress will take over the next two years. After winning a majority on “We will stop Obama and his policies at all costs!” the GOP Establishment pivoted to where we knew they were all along.
They didn’t have a problem with Obama’s executive amnesty language inserted into the DHS funding bill. Not when it happened and not now. In fact, as cozy as they are with K Street, the Chamber of Commerce and other big business entities that line their election coffers with lobbyist checks, they wanted to help their friends out (the corporate ones who want amnesty for cheap labor, not the ones who got them elected).
So in spite of the conservative grassroots and their campaign promises, they stripped the DHS funding bill of any riders or language that would eliminate Obama’s amnesty and rammed it through both the Senate and the House with across the board Democrat support, all the while trying to drive the narrative that a “small group of conservatives” were bucking GOP leadership.
Since when is 31 out of 54 GOP Senators a “small group”? Or the 167 GOP House members that voted against the bill-how can that be defined as “small?”
By our non-Common Core math, both of those “small groups” are significantly above 50%.
In the case of the House, the GOP majority is 248; so in reality the 75 GOP Members that voted with John Boehner (a number significantly under 50% for those of you keeping score) represent the small group.
So what is the problem in Washington, DC with these newly minted GOP majorities?
We venture to guess that their leadership is from a by-gone era unused to a conservative movement that is discontent with the thought of just helping the GOP win during election season and leaving the governing up to them.
They have, in fact, grown up politically in an era where they relied on the conservative grassroots to help them win and their K Street/corporate friends to help them govern. Now that the dynamic is changing and conservatives want to dictate policy, they are trying to buck the new reality.
However, this is a generational shift. It cannot be bucked and the clock cannot be turned back.
As the GOP leadership targets their own conservative Members with the help of pro-amnesty groups like the American Action Network, it’s clear that instead of reading the tea leaves correctly (pun intended) they are creating their own Waterloo.