Throughout the torrent of demographic punditry and horse race political analysis, prognosticators are overlooking one demographic; the white vote. We consistently hear that if Romney doesn’t win above a certain level of minority support, he is doomed. However, many of them are overlooking just how badly Obama is polling among white white voters. They are forgetting that if Obama loses the white vote by a large enough margin, he will lose the election, irrespective of the degree of his minority support. And according to the Washington Post, Romney is well on his way to sweeping the white vote:
But even if Romney sustains a huge loss on the Latino vote, he could very well offset that (and much more) by out-performing his Republican predecessors when it comes to white voters, which are still about seven times as much of the electorate as Latinos. Indeed, it’s not unreasonable to think that Romney could win 60 percent or more of white voters this year.
The most recent national polls from four pollsters — Gallup, Monmouth University, Fox News and the Pew Research Center — all show Romney winning the white vote by more than 20 points. That’s something no GOP presidential candidate has done since Reagan’s landslide 1984 reelection win.
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