There’s one fact that is being overlooked in much of the per-election electoral analysis. Not only are Democrats dramatically underperforming their 2008 early voting turnout, those who are turning out are predominantly their most committed voters. They are not getting new voters to turn out like the GOP is on their side. The Washington Examiner makes this point succinctly:
According to a GOP analysis of early voting and absentee ballot requests provided to Secrets, the Democrats are turning out their most reliable, or so-called “high propensity voters” than Republicans, leaving fewer for Election Day. The GOP is pushing weaker supporters to vote early, expecting high enthusiasm to drive their regular supporters to the polls next week.
“Democrats are cannibalizing their high-propensity voters in advance of election day to get stories that they are winning,” said a GOP analyst. “But in effect they are stealing from Peter, or Election Day, to pay Paul, or early voting.”
For example, in Ohio, the Democrats have turned out 43 percent of the most loyal supporters to vote, compared to just 27 percent of the GOP. In Iowa, the difference is 43 percent to 29 percent.
You plug these numbers into a massive GOP enthusiasm gap and you get a washout on election day for Democrats. With numbers like this, it’s not surprising that Obama is beginning to defend his shaky ground in Minnesota, Michigan, and Minnesota.
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