I’m not a “the polls are wrong” guy. Undoubtedly, there are some screwy polls, but they are not all wrong. It is clear that Obama has a slim lead in most swing states at a time when he should be behind. However, there is one consistent factor that has run in our favor; the enthusiasm gap. Even in the latest CBS/Quinnipiac poll of battleground states, which grossly oversamples Democrats, there is a huge enthusiasm gap, according to Big Government:
Yesterday, CBS/NYT released its latest Quinnipiac poll of Colorado, Virginia and Wisconsin. With the exception of CO, the polls had heavy Democrat skews, so the head-to-head match-ups aren’t particularly informative. What was telling though was the differences in enthusiasm between the two parties.
In all three states, a majority of Republicans say they are more enthusiastic about voting this year, compared to about a third of Democrats who are. In Colorado and Virginia, GOP voters are more enthusiastic than Democrats by a 15 point margin. In Wisconsin, GOP enthusiasm outpaces Democrats by 16 points.
Particularly interesting is that GOP voters have become more enthusiastic about voting in the past month. GOP enthusiasm has increased 9 points in CO, 10 points in WI and 12 points in VA. Democrat enthusiasm, meanwhile has increased only modestly; 5 points in VA, 4 in WI and 10 in CO (from a very low 28% of Democrats who were more enthusiastic about voting).
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