Here’s a rule of thumb for interpreting topline polls this year. If you see a poll that shows Obama doing as well or better than 2008, the poll is bogus. There is no way he has maintained the same level of support and enthusiasm from his unusual coalition of voters four years ago. This memo from Resurgent Republic cited by Politico shows that his core base is unstable:
He holds 53 percent support on the ballot among voters with household income less than $50k, down seven points from 2008. President Obama swept young voters (18-to-29-year-olds) by 66 to 32 percent in 2008, but this margin has been nearly cut in half, 53 to 35 percent. Typically a swing voting bloc in presidential elections, Catholic voters are clearly up for grabs, 47 to 47 percent. Among subgroups that President Obama is likely to lose, he’s doing so by a wider margin. The president trails among white men 61 to 30 percent, a 15 point swing compared to 2008 (57 to 41 percent). His support among white non-college educated voters is also down eight points. It will be difficult for President Obama to close these gaps by winning the undecided voters outright.”
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