A new Washington Post/ABC News poll shows Obama leading Romney by a 49%-46% margin. The problem is that the poll did not sample a filter of likely voters. It sampled registered voters. Such a survey automatically inflates the Democrat vote by 3-5%. It’s no surprise that they show the two of them tied on the economy, something that is quite improbable in any sample of likely voters.
The broader problem with the poll is that 32% of those surveyed were Democrats and only 22% were Republicans. Even in 2008, a turnout model that most analysts on both sides believe to be out of reach for Obama this year, Democrats only had a 7 point edge. In 2004, they were at parity. One has to wonder what the results of this poll would have been had they sampled likely voters with a realistic breakdown of party ID.
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