Madison Project

According to a new University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll, Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst leads Ted Cruz 38%-27%.  All the other challengers are far behind with 7% or less.  This is actually good news for the conservative star, Ted Cruz.  It is pretty clear that Dewhurst will be leading the pack for a while, due to his far superior name ID and organization.  However, with Cruz surging ahead of the pack for second place, he will easily deny Dewhurst the majority support required to avoid a runoff.  Once this becomes a two-man race -one moderate and one conservative – Cruz will have the edge.

As an aside, this poll shows that all the talk of  a horse race between Cruz and Leppert for 2nd place is overblown.  Liberal former Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert is way behind with just 7%.