Mitt Romney’s Problem Going Forward

Wednesday, January 11th, 2012 by and is filed under Blog

Mitt Romney and his team have a problem this morning. They know that South Carolina and Florida are not Iowa and New Hampshire. In fact, as I have repeatedly pointed out Iowa and New Hampshire are irrelevant in the Republican primary process.

In Iowa, you have Independents changing party registration and crossing over for a day to vote in the caucuses and in New Hampshire, Independents don’t even have to change their registration to vote in the Republican primary. Both scenarios beg the question: why are Republicans letting non-Republicans pick their President?

Which is why the race really begins in South Carolina. A closed primary, South Carolina has consistently been the place where candidates have to win or finish top three to move forward. Mitt and his team know this. They know that both South Carolina and Florida are not their strongest states which is why they are pushing the “This is inevitable” narrative this morning.

I am a realist, though. This is Mitt’s race to lose. Not because of Iowa or New Hampshire, but because of his infrastructure, both staff and fundraising. As I blogged a few months ago, infrastructure wins Presidential primaries, not silver bullets.

What New Hampshire Will Tell Us

Tuesday, January 10th, 2012 by and is filed under Blog

A few things, actually.

One is that Mitt Romney needs to finish above 30% or face more stories that tell us what we already know: Republican voters wish they had more choices than are being presented to them.

It will also confirm that Rick Santorum has no play outside of Iowa. In fact, I think it is time Republican primary voters (and campaigns!) completely ignore Iowa. It means nothing. New Hampshire isn’t that far behind. As I noted last week, the real race begins in South Carolina. How folks finish there will dictate the rest of the race.

Newt is still alive thanks to casino mogul Sheldon Adelson. $5 million is a lot of money and the campaign with the most money (or the campaign with the biggest Super PACs in this case) and goes deepest automatically becomes the anti-Romney. Newt may just be off life support, his finish tonight notwithstanding.

Rick Perry needs to do something. ASAP.  He’s calling South Carolina his Alamo. I think I would have picked a different word picture for my supporters. Great story of patriotism, bad ending for those involved.

Ron Paul was never a factor. Sorry. He has a very small base of Republican voters. The rest of anti-war lefties.

What’s Wrong With Rick Santorum?

Wednesday, January 4th, 2012 by and is filed under News

After last night’s tempest in a tea cup (Iowa), a lot of folks are talking about the need to coalesce behind Rick Santorum as the conservative alternative to Mitt Romney. For those folks, let me point you to the Club for Growth’s white paper on Rick Santorum’s Big Government practices.

It’s damning.

What Iowa Tells Us

Wednesday, January 4th, 2012 by and is filed under Blog

Absolutely nothing.

Seriously.

As the pundits, commentators, campaign teams have tried to parse out what the results from Iowa mean going forward, the answer is very straightforward. Mitt Romney spend thousands of dollars per vote, Newt Newted himself with an assist from Romney, Ron Paul had thousands of people switch party registration to vote in the Republican caucuses and everyone seems to have either forgotten that Rick Santorum was/is a big government social conservative or is willfully trying to forget (I confess, I am amazed at all the tea party folks that are excited about Santorum. Folks, he is the antithesis of what you say you stand for. He is not a limited government conservative by an stretch of the imagination.). Have people already forgotten him going into South Carolina to diss on Jim DeMint’s stand against earmarks?

So what does this mean? Mitt Romney’s money is plowing folks under (Newt still has skid marks on his front AND back from Romney’s Super PACs rolling over him in Iowa) and right now, he is the front runner. He will win New Hampshire. The conservative movement’s firewall against the Establishment is South Carolina.

With Rick Perry’s announcement today that he is still in the race in spite of his 5th place finish last night, this is going to leave Rick Santorum as the odd man out. Going forward you will have Mitt versus Newt (Mitt wins) and Santorum versus Perry (Perry wins). All Rick Perry has to do is stay alive long enough and it will soon be Mitt versus Rick. When that happens, a lot of people are going to look at Rick Perry and think, “Yeah, I kind of like him.”

Iowa is a unique circus. New Hampshire is too. The race for President really starts in South Carolina.

 

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